The Impact of Climate Change on Water Diplomacy in the Middle East

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Master student at Altinbas University (Department of Political Science and International Relations),Istanbul, Turkey

2 Altınbaş University/Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences, Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract

The current research aims to explore the complex dynamic between climate change and water diplomacy in the Middle East, where the environment is acutely sensitive, water scarcity is acute, and tensions are high geopolitically. With climate change exacerbating water deficits through the warming of temperatures, reduction in rainfall, and increased salinity, classic water-sharing agreements between Middle Eastern nations find themselves subject to increasingly mounting pressure. These agreements typically have no access to legal enforcement and fail to keep up with changing climatic circumstances, thus cooperation reduces while the risk of conflict increases.
Applying a realist theoretical lens, the research highlights state interests and sovereignty as drivers of water diplomacy, showing that cooperation is instead frequently aimed at advancing strategic interests over common good. Using document and historical methods, the study investigates transboundary water management's current state and future possibilities, applying the Voros foresight method to evaluate potential outcomes. Whereas climate change threatens, it also offers chances for diplomacy and ingenuity, such as in the UAE-facilitated Israel-Jordan water-energy agreement. Lastly, the study calls for establishing robust, climate-resilient, and legally binding water-sharing frameworks prioritizing sustainable development, regional security, and equitable resource distribution

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Article History

Receive Date: 2025/4/15

Accept Date: 2025/6/22

Publish Date: 2025/7/23

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